Hey it’s Kieran! I hope that you had a great weekend and are looking forward to getting back into the markets this week. I’ll hopefully speak to you in the Traderseed programs, and as ever, if you have any questions, just contact me let me know. With that said, let’s get started!
Weekly Watchlist
Well what a market open it was this morning with Gold putting in a +4% candle overnight and then retracing almost all of the move. This week the biggest event on the calendar is Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. We’ll also get a lot of Eurozone economic data on Tuesday & Wednesday which will set the mood for next week’s ECB policy meeting.
The Macro View
S&P 500 December Seasonality. The end of year Santa rally has been in full flow this year and on a 20 year lookback December usually spells more of the same in the equity markets.
Positioning is Stretched..but we are still far off extreme levels
Bears dropping like flies..The 4-week change in AAII Bear Index is one of the largest drops we have seen in the last 20 years.
The CTA (Systematic Trend Following Funds) buying has been extreme. Rolling 20-day change in US CTA positioning. They have bought $93bn of US Equities over a 1-month period, that’s the largest buying on record according to Goldman Sachs.
JP Morgan Quant Desk note that on a 12-month rolling lookback retail traders have plenty of room to re-leverage.
The golden shooting star. Absolutely crazy action in gold overnight, currently putting in a huge shooting star candle. This is not what you see at lows…
Not everybody is buying gold. Global central banks have been loading up on gold for months. Gold holdings in ETFs on the other hand look very different and have yet to even tick up a little bit. New all-time-highs will bring the attention of gold to the masses, so expect this to change, however it is NEVER and easy ride trading Gold, so trade with caution. Have a great week out there!
I hope you found this interesting and useful. As ever, keep your risk management top of mind, trade safe, and stay nimble out there.
Have a good week!
Kieran
www.traderseed.io
Subscribe below to receive this to your inbox every Monday!
Check out our NEW Traderseed challenges. Large accounts, wide loss limits and big payouts. Our programs start from only $75! Check them out here!
